Australian Priority Investment Approach to Welfare

The Priority Investment Approach uses actuarial analysis to inform policies and interventions that improve long-term outcomes for Australians. Insights from the analysis provide a long-term view of how Australians are expected to use social security over their lifetime.

Predicted future costs for the entire Australian population are estimated through an annual valuation. The modelling informs evidence-based policy development by identifying the cohorts most at risk of disadvantage and highlighting where to best focus investment and support.

About the approach

The Priority Investment Approach can:

  • predict future social security usage and associated lifetime cost
  • identify and provide insights into vulnerable groups
  • inform early intervention.

Through the Priority Investment Approach and by intervening early, we can give people with capacity the support they need to take part economically and socially through work.

The Priority Investment Approach model is underpinned by a longitudinal dataset of social security recipients. It is an actuarial model that predicts social security usage based on historical patterns.

Reports and analysis

The 2022 Priority Investment Approach findings can be found in the following series of products:

  1. 2022 Valuation Report: The valuation report provides insight into how Australians are likely to use the social security system in the future. This informs evidence-based policies and programs to help us deliver the best results.
  2. Factsheet series: This series provides insights into demographic and other factors driving future payment usage.
  1. One page Placemat analysing future outcomes and projections for the cohort of people receiving JobSeeker Payment at 30 June 2022.

Historical publications

The 2015 Baseline Valuation Report created a foundation. Later reports build on this foundation:  

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